The world’s largest report on climate change will be published later, revealing the reality of the planet’s condition.
The study was conducted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – a UN team that examined more than 14,000 scientific papers.
This is the most recent prediction on how global warming will change the world in the coming decades.
Scientists say this is bad news – but with “nuggets of optimism”.
It is a “huge wake-up call” for governments to reduce emissions, say, environmentalists.
The IPCC last saw the science of global warming in 2013 – and scientists believe they have learned a lot since then.
In recent years, the world has seen record temperatures, wildfires and catastrophic floods.
Some of the papers studied by the panel show that some changes that humans inadvertently make in the environment will not be reversed for hundreds or thousands of years.
IPCC findings will also be used at the UK’s major summit in November – which will be revealed at a press conference at 09:00 BST.
The UN-sponsored conference, COP26, could be seen as a critical moment if climate control is in place. Leaders of 196 countries are meeting and endorsing the adoption.
UK Prime Minister Alok Sharma, who is leading the summit, said over the weekend it was time for the world to avoid disaster – the effects of climate change were already happening.
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The Intergovernmental Panel brings together representatives of world governments to evaluate scientists’ research. That is, all governments buy what they find.
The final panel was in 2013 and has been largely settled since then, researchers say.
In the past, for example, they were reluctant to attribute extreme events such as heatwaves and torrential rain to at least partially mitigating climate change.
Now in the case of the heatwave in the US in June, they believe it is almost impossible without climate change.
They say the world will continue to warm.
It is also – especially in northern Europe – humid, but droughts also increase as climate patterns change.
The panel studied documents showing that sea levels could continue to rise for hundreds or thousands of years due to heat already trapped deep in the ocean.
Investigators concluded that if politicians were to hold global warming to 1.5C, in the pre-industrial era, the worst disasters could still be prevented.
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Professor Pierce Forster, an expert on climate change from the University of Leeds, said, “We can say a lot more about the catastrophes we are experiencing today and how they can characterize our greenhouse gas emissions.” This causes them to deteriorate further. “
“The report comes with a lot of bad news about where we are and where we are going, but there are nuggets of optimism that I think is really good for climate change talks,” he told the LBC.
One of the reasons for the hope he explains is that it is possible to keep the earth’s temperature below 1.5 degrees.
Experts say the effects of climate change will be even greater if the temperature rises above 1.5C. To date, global temperatures have risen to 1.2C above pre-industrial levels.
In 2015 the Paris Agreement set a goal of keeping the average temperature above 2C and not more than 1.5C.
Richard Black from the non-profit organization Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit said: “If you come before COP26, this report is a great encouragement to all governments that have not put in place concrete plans to reduce all future pollution.
“It shows that the choices made now will have a big impact on our future – on the one hand it will lead to a world of wild weather effects and countless risks, and on the other hand climate change will be limited within manageable limits.”
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So, what can we expect from the report?
According to many observers, there have been significant improvements in science over the past few years.
“Our models are better, we have a better understanding of physics and chemistry and biology, so they can better adapt to future temperature changes and rainfall changes,” said Dr Stephen Cornelius, WWF and IPCC conference moderator.
“Another change is that the epistemology has grown exponentially over the last few years. We can make more connections between climate change and extreme weather events.”
As well as updates on temperature forecasts, there will be a strong focus on the question of the role of humanity in creating a climate crisis.
In a final report in 2013, the IPCC stated that it had been a “major cause” of global warming since the 1950s.
The message in the latest report is expected to be even stronger, with warnings of how quickly global temperatures will rise to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. Experts say the effects of climate change will be even greater if the temperature rises above 1.5C.
This time the IPCC is also expected to show how much influence humans have on the oceans, climate and other aspects of our planetary systems.
One of the most important questions is related to sea-level rise. This has long been a contentious issue for the IPCC, with some scientists very traditionally rejecting their previous predictions.
“In the past, they were reluctant to give a reasonable limit to sea level rise, and we hope they will eventually arrive by this time,” said Professor Arthur Peterson of UCL London.
As the world has experienced numerous devastating fires and floods in recent months linked to climate change, the report will also include a new chapter linking extreme weather events to rising temperatures.
What is IPCC?
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is a UN body established in 1988 to assess the science of climate change.
The IPCC provides governments with scientific information that has been used to improve global warming systems.
The first reports of a comprehensive study on climate change were released in 1992. The sixth in a series is divided into four volumes, the first – which covers physics after weather – will be published on Monday. Many parts of the review will include results and solutions.
The summary was adopted by a process involving scientists and 195 government representatives.